The Indianapolis Colts welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday. The Colts are 5-5 and looking to stay in the playoff race while the 4-6 Bucs will hope to snap out of a skid that has seen them drop five of their last six games.
NFL odds opened with Indy as a slim 1.5-point favorite before shifting to -2.5. Here are my best Buccaneers vs. Colts free NFL picks and predictions for November 26.
Buccaneers vs Colts odds
Buccaneers vs Colts predictions
Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew hasn’t looked great lately, but head coach Shane Steichen does a good job of taking what the defense gives him, and the Buccaneers defense gets burned through the air. In fact, the Bucs are actually first in the league in defensive rush EPA but rank 21st in overall EPA and 26th in success rate due to how poorly they defend against the pass.
Tampa Bay is 25th in the league in defensive dropback EPA, and it ranks 31st in passing yards allowed per game (270.7) and 30th in yards allowed per attempt (7.4). The Bucs are also dealing with injuries at cornerback, with Jamel Dean a non-participant in practice on Wednesday and Carlton Davis III limited.
That should make for a favorable matchup for Colts wideout Michael Pittman Jr. Pittman is coming off a game against the Patriots where he hauled in eight of 12 targets for 84 yards. He has racked up more than 80 receiving yards in three of his last five games. Even in the two games during that span where he went below that number, he saw plenty of looks, with eight catches against the Panthers and 13 targets against the Saints.
With Tampa Bay’s secondary allowing seven different receivers to eclipse the 100-yard mark this year, take the Over on Pittman’s receiving yards total, which is set at a reasonable 68.5.
My best bet: Michael Pittman Over 69.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Buccaneers vs Colts same-game parlay
Michael Pittman Over 69.5 receiving yardsColts moneylineOver 43.5
+400 at bet365
This is a tough situational spot for the Bucs, who will be playing their fourth road game in the last month. Meanwhile, the Colts are fresh off a bye after back-to-back wins away from home.
With Tampa Bay struggling to defend the pass and its offense scoring more than 20 points just once in the last six games, I like the Colts to win here.
That said, I do think that Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense should be able to score more than usual here. While the Colts have allowed just 16 points in their last two games those came against pathetic Patriots and Panthers attacks. Prior to those contests, they had surrendered more than 35 points in three consecutive games — including 39 points to a Browns team with P.J. Walker at QB.
With both teams playing so poorly on defense, the Over looks like a good bet to tack on to this parlay.
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